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RPT_-09_1019-Section_5_-_Demand_Projections.doc
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
5.0 PROJECTED WATER DEMAND INFORMATION … 1
5.1 MRPDC… 2
5.1.1 Population Data … 2
5.1.2 Demand Projection Methodology … 4
5.1.3 Amendments to Methodology… 8
5.1.4 Projected Water Demand Results … 10
5.2 Cumberland Plateau PDC … 11
5.2.1 Population Projections … 11
5.2.2 Demand Projections … 11
5.3 LENOWISCO PDC … 14
5.3.1 Population Projections … 14
5.3.2 Demand Projections … 14
5.0
RPT
TABLE OF CO!
PROJECTED WATER DEMAND INFORMATION
5.1 MRPDC…
5.1.1 Population Data… .
5.1.2. Demand Projection Methodology…
5.1.3 Amendments to Methodology…
5.1.4 Projected Water Demand Resulls…
5.2 Cumberland Plateau PDC…
5.2.1 Population Projections
§.2.2 Demand Projections
5.3 LENOWISCO PDC…
5.3.1 Population Projections
5.3.2 Demand Projections
(091019 -Seetion 5 - Demand Projections doe
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TABLES
Table 5.1.1A:  Historical Population by Jurisdiction. … 2
Jurisdiction … 2
Table 5.1.1B:  Historical Population Growth Rate Percent by Jurisdiction. … 2
Table 5.1.2A: 2000 Census Population by Jurisdiction. … 3
Table 5.1.2B:  Projected Population and Growth Rate by Jurisdiction … 4
Table 5.2.5:  Population Served by Community Water Systems and Individual Wells … 7
Table 5.4.1:  Total Projected Water Demand by Jurisdiction. … 10
FIGURES
Figure 1: Use the DAA Figure Caption Style for identifying figures . Error! Bookmark not
defined.
TABLES
Table 5.1.1A: Historical Population by Jurisdiction…
Jurisdiction…
Table 5.1.1B: Historical Population Growth Rate Percent by Jurisdiction.
Table 5.1.2A: 2000 Census Population by Jurisdiction.
Table 5.1.2B: Projected Population and Growth Rate by Jurisdiction…
Table 5.2.5: Population Served by Community Water Systems and Individual Well
Sueunnn
Table 5.4.1: Total Projected Water Demand by Jurisdiction.
FIGURES
Figure 1: Use the DAA Figure Caption Style foridentifying figures. Error! Bookmark not
defined.
RPT_-09. 1019 -Seetion_5- Demand Projections doe
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5.0 PROJECTED WATER DEMAND INFORMATION
MRPDC
As population in the Region increases so will the demand for water.  By examining past trends,
current conditions, and future projections, a plan can be developed to prepare for future water
demands.  As required by the Regulations, an analysis of population growth and water demand
projections is detailed in the following section of the Plan.  Projections of future water demand
for the region are based on existing data from municipalities, VDH, and VDEQ as well as
population and employment projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Virginia
Employment Commission (VEC), respectively.
Cumberland Plateau PDC
Estimated water use within the planning area is identified in this section by the criteria
established in the water supply planning regulations.  The population projection for each county
is determined from information obtained from the Virginia Employment Commission and the
United States Census Bureau to estimate water use for the years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040.
Detailed information regarding the population projections for each specified year is provided in
Appendix C, and estimated water use for each of the specified years is provided in Appendix D.
Projected water demand reflects the impact of four parameters:  population changes, extension of
existing water service to new areas, change in water use due to economic activities, and
improvement in water system delivery efficiency.  The contribution of each parameter to
projected water demand is described in this narrative.
LENOWISCO PDC
Estimated water use within the planning area is identified in this section by the criteria
established in the water supply planning regulations.  The population projection for each city or
county is determined from information obtained from the Virginia Employment Commission and
the U. S. Census Bureau to estimate water use for the years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040.
Detailed information regarding the population projections for each specified year is provided in
Appendix C, and estimated water use for each of the specified years is provided in Appendix D.
5.0 PROJECTED WATER DEMAND INFORMATION
MRPDC
‘As population in the Region increases so will the demand for water. By examining past trends,
current conditions, and future projections, a plan can be developed to prepare for future water
demands. As required by the Regulations, an analysis of population growth and water demand
projections is detailed in the following section of the Plan, Projections of future water demand
for the region are based on existing data from municipalities, VDH, and VDEQ as well as
population and employment projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the’ Virginia
Employment Commission (VEC), respectively.
Cumberland Plateau PDC
Estimated water use within the planning area is identified in this section by the criteria
established in the water supply planning regulations, The population projection for each county
is determined from information obtained from the Virginia Employment Commission and the
United States Census Bureau to estimate water use’for the years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040.
Detailed information regarding the population projections for each specified year is provided in
Appendix C, and estimated water use for each of the specified years is provided in Appendix D.
Projected water demand reflects the impact of four parameters: population changes, extension of
existing water sétvice to new areas, change in water use due to economic activities, and
improvement>in water system delivery efficiency. The contribution of each parameter to
projected water demand is described in this narrative.
LENOWISCO PDC
Estimated water use within the planning area is identified in this section by the criteria
established in the water supply planning regulations. The population projection for each city or
county is determined from information obtained from the Virginia Employment Commission and
the U. S. Census Bureau to estimate water use for the years 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040.
Detailed information regarding the population projections for each specified year is provided in
Appendix C, and estimated water use for each of the specified years is provided in Appendix D.
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Projected water demand reflects the impact of four parameters: population changes, extension of
existing water service to new areas, change in water use due to economic activities, and
improvement in water system delivery efficiency. The contribution of each parameter to
projected water demand is described in this narrative.
5.1 MRPDC
5.1.1 Population Data
5.1.1.1 Historical Population and Growth Trends
Past population trends provide a good starting point when estimating future growth and water
demands.  The U.S. Census Bureau provides historical data for counties and cities only;
therefore, it was assumed that the towns in the region have the same rate of change in population
as their respective county.  The historical population and decennial growth rate percentage for
each jurisdiction over the past 40 years is presented in Tables 5.1.1.1A and 5.1.1.1B,
respectively.
Table 5.1.1.1A:  Historical Population by Jurisdiction.
Jurisdiction
Census
1960
Census
1970
Census
1980
Census
1990
Census
2000
Bland County 5,982 5,423 6,349 6,514 6,871
Carroll County 23,178 23,092 27,270 26,594 29,245
Grayson County 17,390 15,439 16,579 16,278 17,917
Smyth County 31,066 31,349 33,366 32,370 33,081
Washington County 38,076 40,835 46,487 45,887 51,103
Wythe County 21,975 22,139 25,522 25,466 27,599
City of Bristol 17,144 14,857 19,042 18,426 17,367
City of Galax 5,254 6,278 6,524 6,670 6,837
Table 5.1.1.1B:  Historical Population Growth Rate Percent by Jurisdiction.
Jurisdiction
1960-
1970 1970-1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000 Average
Bland County -9.34 17.08 2.60 5.48 3.95
Carroll County -0.37 18.09 -2.48 9.97 6.30
Grayson County -11.22 7.38 -1.82 10.07 1.10
Smyth County 0.91 6.43 -2.99 2.20 1.64
Projected water demand reflects the impact of four parameters: population changes, extension of
existing water service to new areas, change in water use due to economic activities, and
improvement in water system delivery efficiency. The contribution of each parameter to
projected water demand is described in this narrative.
5.1 MRPDC
5.1.1 Population Data
5.1.1.1 Historical Population and Growth Trends
Past population trends provide a good starting point when estimating future growth and water
demands. The U.S. Census Bureau provides historical data for counties and cities only;
therefore, it was assumed that the towns in the region have the same rate of change in population
as their respective county. The historical population and decennial growth rate percentage for
each jurisdiction over the past 40 years is presented in Tables 5.1.1.1A and 5.1.1.1B,
respectively.
Table 5.1.1.1A:
Bland County 5.982 5423 6.349 6.514 6871
Carroll County ae 33,083 36.500 35-345
Grayson County 17300 5439 16/379 16378 17917
‘Smyth County PUTT wee S349 33,366 35,370 33087
Washington County 38,076 40835 45887 31,103
Wythe County 31975 22,139 23.466 37,355
Gity of Bristol yaa 14.8357 8436 17,367
City of Galax S356 6.278 6,524 6670 6.837
Historical Population Growth Rate Percent by Jurisdiction,
Bland County 7934 | 17.08 F200 S48) 3.95
Carroll County 18.09 “ag” 9.97 6330
Grayson County “38 738 183 i007 iv
Smyth County O91 643 2.99 330 1.64
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Washington County 7.25 13.84 -1.29 11.37 7.79
Wythe County 0.75 15.28 -0.22 8.38 6.05
City of Bristol -13.34 28.17 -3.23 -5.75 1.46
City of Galax 19.49 3.92 2.24 2.50 7.04
5.1.1.2 Current Population and Future Population Projections
The population by jurisdiction based on the 2000 Census is presented in Table 5.1.1.2A.  Please
note that the county populations do not include the towns within their respective county.
Table 5.1.1.2A: 2000 Census Population by Jurisdiction.
Locality Population Locality Population
Bland County 6,871 Damascus 981
Carroll County 26,638 Fries 614
Grayson County 15,102 Glade Spring 1,374
Smyth County 22,701 Hillsville 2,607
Washington County 40,968 Independence 971
Wythe County 18,445 Marion 6,349
City of Bristol 17,367 Rural Retreat 1,350
City of Galax 6,837 Saltville 2,204
Abingdon 7,780 Troutdale 1,230
Chilhowie 1,827 Wytheville 7,804
The percent change in population for each county was determined by comparing the population
in the year 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau) and the estimated population in 2030 (Virginia
Employment Commission).  Once the percent change in population was determined for each
county and city, the percentage was used to project the population through 2060.  Please note
that the U.S. Census Bureau only provides information for counties and cities; therefore, it was
assumed that the average annual percent change in population for the towns was the same as its
respective county.  Future population projections through 2060 are presented in Table 5.1.1.2B.
Washington County 7.25 13.84 “1297 1137 779
Wythe County 078 15.28 022 838 6.05
City of Bristol “i334 28.17 323 375 1.46
Giiy of Gaiax a 393 mee 330 704
5.1.1.2 Current Population and Future Population Projections
The population by jurisdiction based on the 2000 Census is presented in Table 5.1.1,2A. Please
note that the county populations do not include the towns within their respective county.
Table 5.1.1.2A: 2000 Census Population by Jurisdiction.
Bland County L687 Damascus | 981
Carroll County 26,638 Fries oi
| Grayson County aca) Glade Spang ee
Sinytir County sabi iiitisviie 607
‘Washington County, 90.968 Independence 971
Wythe County Saas Marion 6349
Gity of Bristol 17367 Rural Retreat 13350
[GityoF Galax 6837 Saitville 2,204
‘Abingdon Teo ‘Troutdale i330
Chithowie esa Wytheville 7.804
The percent change.in population for each county was determined by comparing the population
in the year 2000 (U.S)Census Bureau) and the estimated population in 2030 (Virginia
Employment Commission). Once the percent change in population was determined for each
county and.city, the percentage was used to project the population through 2060. Please note
that the U.S. Census Bureau only provides information for counties and cities; therefore, it was
assumed that the average annual percent change in population for the towns was the same as its
respective county. Future population projections through 2060 are presented in Table 5.1.1.2B.
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Table 5.1.1.2B:  Projected Population and Growth Rate by Jurisdiction
Jurisdiction
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Annual
Growth %
Bland County 6,884 7,016 7,150 7,287 7,427 7,569 7,714 0.190
Carroll County 29,256 29,367 29,479 29,591 29,704 29,817 29,931 0.038
Grayson County 17,917 17,917 17,917 17,917 17,917 17,917 17,917 0.000
Smyth County 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 0.000
Washington County 51,249 52,734 54,262 55,834 57,451 59,116 60,828 0.286
Wythe County 27,725 29,012 30,360 31,770 33,245 34,789 36,405 0.455
City of Bristol 17,347 17,347 17,347 17,347 17,347 17,347 17,347 0.000
City of Galax 6,840 6,866 6,892 6,918 6,944 6,971 6,997 0.038
5.1.2 Demand Projection Methodology
The annual percent change in population for each jurisdiction was determined by comparing the
population in the year 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau) and the estimated population in 2030 (VEC).
Once the percent change in population was determined, that percentage was used to project the
population through the year 2060.  The percent change in population was then used to project
water demand by applying it to water demands that are influenced by changes in population such
as residential demand.  For jurisdictions where a population decrease was anticipated, a
projection of zero growth was assumed.
For demand categories that are more influenced by changes in employment, such as commercial
and industrial demands, the average annual projected percent change in employment (per the
VEC) was used.
5.1.2.1 Public Community Water Systems
Population estimates within the planning area served by each existing community water system
were supplied by the jurisdiction or VDH.  The current total demand was provided by the
jurisdiction or VDEQ.  In addition, the jurisdiction also provided water demand disaggregated
into the following categories of use when available:
Residential
Commercial, institutional and light industrial
Heavy Industrial
Military
Water used in water production processes
Table $.1.1.2
: Projected Population and Growth Rate by Jurisdiction
Bland County 6884 | 7016, 7,150, 7287) 7A27 | 7,569,714 0.190
Carrotl County 35.356 29,367 29.479 35,501 39,704 39,8177 29.931 0.038
Grayson County T7917 17,917 17917 7917 W917 F917 17.917 0.000
‘Smyth County 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 33,081 «33,081 ~=—.000—s|
Washington County “31345” 52,734 34262 SS.RV SASL SOT 60,828 0.286
Wythe County TI 29,012 30,360 S177) 33,3453 FRI 36,405 0.455
City of Bristol 17347 17347 17,347 17347 7347 W347 347 0.000
City of Galax ee Rad 6866 ce TS BOT ROT R907 On
5.1.2. Demand Projection Methodology,
The annual percent change in population for each jurisdiction was determined by comparing the
population in the year 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau) and the estimated population in 2030 (VEC).
Once the percent change in population was determined, that percentage was used to project the
population through the year 2060. The percent change in population was then used to project
water demand by applying it to water demands thatare influenced by changes in population such
as residential demand, For jurisdictions where a population decrease was anticipated, a
projection of zero growth was assumed.
For demand categories that are more influenced by changes in employment, such as commercial
and industrial demands, the average annual projected percent change in employment (per the
VEC) was used.
5.1.2.1 Public Community Water Systems
Population estimates within the planning area served by each existing community water system
were supplied by the jurisdiction or VDH. The current total demand was provided by the
jurisdiction oF VDEQ. In addition, the jurisdiction also provided water demand disaggregated
into the following categories of use when available:
© Residential
© Commercial, institutional and light industrial
© Heavy Industrial
© Military
Water used in water produ
jon processes
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Unaccounted for water losses
Sales to other community water systems
Other
When the jurisdiction did not provide disaggregate information, assumptions were made in order
to calculate the demand for each category and are presented in more detail in the demand
projection calculations in Appendix D.
In order to project the demand for public community water systems, the average annual percent
change in population from 2000 to 2030 was applied to the residential demand.  The commercial,
institutional, industrial, military, production process, unaccounted-for-water, sales and other
demand projections were established by applying the annual average percent change in
employment from 2002 to 2012 to the current demand for each category.  The annual average
percent change in employment was applied since these categories are more likely influenced by
changes in employment.
For each town it was assumed that the residential demand increased at the same rate as the
annual average percent change in population.  When calculating the annual average percent
change in population for a town, it was assumed that the town‟s population will increase at the
same rate as the respective county since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.
In addition, it was assumed that towns have the same rate of change in employment as their
respective county.
Once the demands were projected through 2060 in each category, all of the demands are summed
to give the total annual average demand for each public water system.  The peak monthly
demand and the average monthly demand were provided by each jurisdiction and used to
calculate a peaking factor.  The peaking factor was then applied to the annual average demand
and projected through 2060.  When the locality did not provide the peak monthly demand, a
peaking factor of 1.2 was assumed.
5.1.2.2 Private Community Water Systems
In order to project the future demands for private community water systems the annual average
percent change in population was applied to the total demand from all of the private community
systems in each jurisdiction.  Since these water systems are serving a community, it is assumed
© Unaccounted for water losses
© Sales to other community water systems
© Other
When the jurisdiction did not provide disaggregate information, assumptions were made in order
to calculate the demand for each category and are presented in more detail in the demand
projection calculations in Appendix D.
In order to project the demand for public community water systems, the average annual percent
1,
institutional, industrial, military, production process, unaccounted-for-water, sales and other
change in population from 2000 to 2030 was applied to the residential demand, The commierci
demand projections were established by applying the anitial average percent change in
employment from 2002 to 2012 to the current demand for each categoryeThe annual average
percent change in employment was applied since these categories are more likely influenced by
changes in employment.
For each town it was assumed that the residential demand) increased at the same rate as the
annual average percent change in population, When calculating the annual average percent
change in population for a town, it was assumed that the town’s population will increase at the
same rate as the respective county since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.
In addition, it was assumed that,towns have the same rate of change in employment as their
respective county.
Once the demands were projected through 2060 in each category, all of the demands are summed
to give the total annual average demand for each public water system. The peak monthly
demand”and the average monthly demand were provided by each jurisdiction and used to
calculate a peaking factor. The peaking factor was then applied to the annual average demand
and projected through 2060. When the locality did not provide the peak monthly demand, a
peaking factor of 1.2 was assumed.
5.1.2.2 Private Community Water Systems
In order to project the future demands for private community water systems the annual average
percent change in population was applied to the total demand from all of the private community
systems in each jurisdiction. Since these water systems are serving a community, it is assumed
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that the growth in these areas will be the same as the percent change in population for the
jurisdiction.
5.1.2.3 Self-Supplied, Non-Agricultural Using Greater Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
In order to project the future demands for self-supplied, non-agricultural users the annual average
percent change in employment was applied to the total demand from each of these users for each
jurisdiction.
5.1.2.4 Self –Supplied, Agricultural Users Using Greater Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
Information on self-supplied, agricultural users using greater than 300,000 gallons of water per
month was very limited or unavailable.  Agricultural information for each county was collected
from the USDA NASS 2002 Census of Agriculture.  General information on livestock (e.g.,
number of head of cattle) and crops (e.g., type of crop planted) was available and was used to
make a general estimate of water used by self-supplied, agricultural users in the region.
Agriculture in the region is not expected to increase in the future and in many areas of the region
will likely decrease as growth occurs.  To be conservative agricultural projections were
maintained at the current rate throughout the planning period.
5.1.2.5 Self-Supplied, Individual Well Users Using Less Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
To determine an estimate of residences and businesses that are self-supplied and served by
individual groundwater wells withdrawing less than 300,000 gallons per month, the population
served by both public and private community water systems was determined.  Population served
by public community water systems was provided by the jurisdiction or VDH.  Population
served by private community water systems was provided by VDH.  The total population for
each jurisdiction was provided by the 2000 U.S. Census Bureau.
A summary of the population served by individual wells by jurisdiction is included in Table
5.1.2.5.  The population served by individual wells was estimated by subtracting the population
served by public and private community water systems from the total population.  It is important
to note that the total county populations do not include the towns within the respective county.
that the growth in these areas will be the same as the percent change in population for the
jurisdiction.
5.1.2.3 Self-Supplied, Non-Agricultural Using Greater Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
In order to project the future demands for self-supplied, non-agricultural users the annual average
percent change in employment was applied to the total demand from each of these users for each
jurisdiction.
5.1.2.4 Self Supplied, Agricultural Users Using Greater Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
Information on self-supplied, agricultural users using gréater than 300,000 gallons of water per
month was very limited or unavailable. Agricultural information for each county was collected
from the USDA NASS 2002 Census of Agriculture. General information on livestock (e.g.,
number of head of cattle) and crops (e.g., type Of crop planted) was available and was used to
make a general estimate of water used by self-suppliedy agricultural users in the region,
Agriculture in the region is not expected to inereas¢ in the future and in many areas of the region
will likely decrease as growth occurs. To be conservative agricultural projections were
maintained at the current rate throughout the planning period.
5.1.2.5 Self-Supplied, Individual Well Users Using Less Than 300,000 Gallons of
Water Per Month
To determine an estimate of residences and businesses that are self-supplied and served by
individual groundwater wells withdrawing less than 300,000 gallons per month, the population
served by both publie-and private community water systems was determined, Population served
by public community water systems was provided by the jurisdiction or VDH. Population
served by private community water systems was provided by VDH. The total population for
each jurisdiction was provided by the 2000 U.S. Census Bureau.
A summary of the population served by individual wells by jurisdiction is included in Table
5.1.2.5. The population served by individual wells was estimated by subtracting the population
served by public and private community water systems from the total population. It is important
to note that the total county populations do not include the towns within the respective county.
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In addition, many of the towns serve areas in their respective county that are outside the town
limits.  The population served by the respective public community water system outside the town
limits and in the respective county is included in the „Population Served by Public CWS‟ for the
respective county.  For example, the total population for the Town of Marion in 2000 was
approximately 6,349 people.  The Town of Marion public community water system serves
approximately 10,000 people.  The additional 3,651 people served by the Town of Marion public
community water system are located in Smyth County and were included in the „Population
Served by Public CWS‟ for Smyth County in Table 5.1.2.5.
Table 5.1.2.5:  Population Served by Community Water Systems and Individual Wells
Jurisdiction
Total
Population
Population
Served by
Public CWS
Estimated
Population Served
by Private CWS
Estimated Population
Served by Individual
Wells
Bland County 5,048 2,706 791 1,551
Carroll County* 26,638 9,068 902 16,668
Grayson County* 15,102 805 324 13,973
Smyth County* 22,701 11,527 4,776 6,398
Washington County* 40,968 39,873 0 1,095
Wythe County* 18,445 8,843 146 9,456
City of Bristol 17,367 17,347 0 20
City of Galax 6,837 6,700 0 137
Town of Abingdon 7,780 7,780 0 0
Town of Chilhowie 1,827 1,827 0 0
Town of Damascus 981 981 0 0
Town of Fries 614 614 0 0
Town of Glade Spring 1,374 1,374 0 0
Town of Hillsville 2,607 2,607 0 0
Town of Independence 971 971 0 0
Town of Marion 6,349 6,349 0 0
Town of Rural Retreat 1,350 1,350 0 0
Town of Saltville 2,204 2,204 0 0
Town of Troutdale 1,230 188 0 1,042
Town of Wytheville 7,804 7,804 0 0
Total 188,197 130,918 6,939 50,340

Total county population does not include the towns within the respective county.

In addition, many of the towns serve areas in their respective county that are outside the town
limits. The population served by the respective public community water system outside the town
limits and in the respective county is included in the ‘Population Served by Public CWS? for the
respective county. For example, the total population for the Town of Marion in 2000 was
approximately 6,349 people. The Town of Marion public community water system serves
approximately 10,000 people. The additional 3,651 people served by the Town of Marion public
community water system are located in Smyth County and were included in the ‘Population
Served by Public CWS’ for Smyth County in Table 5.1.2.5.
Table 5.1.2.5: Population Served by Community Water Systems and Indiyidual Wells,
Bland County 2,106,
Carroll County ‘068
Grayson County* 805
Sinyti County* Ey i137
in County 30.873
[Wythe Couniy* RRB MG
City of Bristol 17347
Gity of Gaiax 6700
‘Town of Abingdon F780
Town of Chithowie 1837
Town of Damascus 981
‘Town of Fries i Gn
‘Town of Giade Spring i374
‘Town of Hilisville i 607
“Town of Independence i . O77
Town of Marion 6,349
‘Town of Rural Retreat — 1300 ~C~C*”*~<“CS~Ci‘
Town of Saitville 2208 CO
‘Fown of Troutdale 1330 188 0
‘Fown of Wytheville 7804 7,804 0
Total i88i97 0918,

Total county population does not include the towns within the respective county.

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5.1.3 Amendments to Methodology
5.1.3.1 Bland County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Bland County.
5.1.3.2 Carroll County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Carroll County.
5.1.3.3 Grayson County
Grayson County‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.4 Smyth County
Smyth County‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population for the town will remain constant.
5.1.3.5 Washington County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Washington County.
5.1.3.6 Wythe County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Wythe County.
5.1.3.7 City of Bristol
The City of Bristol‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.8 City of Galax
The City of Bristol‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3. Amendments to Methodology



1 Bland County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Bland County.
5.1.3.2 Carroll County
‘No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Carroll County.
5.1.3.3 Grayson County
Grayson County’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it Was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.4 Smyth County
Smyth County’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population for the town will remain constant.
5 Washington County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Washington County.
5.1.3.6 Wythe County
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for Wythe County.
5.1.3.7 City of Bristol
The City of Bristol’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.8 City of Galax
The City of Bristol’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand
projections based on population will remain constant.
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5.1.3.9 Town of Chilhowie
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Chilhowie will increase at the same rate as
Smyth County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County‟s
population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
population for the town will remain constant.
5.1.3.10 Town of Fries
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Fries will increase at the same rate as
Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.  Grayson
County‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections
based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.11 Town of Hillsville
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Hillsville.
5.1.3.12 Town of Independence
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Independence will increase at the same rate
as Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.  Grayson
County‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections
based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.13 Town of Marion
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Marion will increase at the same rate as
Smyth County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County‟s
population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
population for the town will remain constant.
5.1.3.14 Town of Rural Retreat
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Rural
Retreat.
5.1.3.9 Town of Chilhowie
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Chilhowie will increase at the same rate as
Smyth County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County’s
population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
population for the town will remain constant.
5.13.10 Town of Fries
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Fries will increase\at the same rate as
Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. © Grayson
County’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it wasyassumed that demand projections
based on population will remain constant.
5.13.11 Town of Hillsville
‘No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Hillsville.
5.13.12 Town of Independence
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Independence will increase at the same rate
as Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Grayson
County’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections
based on population will remain constant.
$.1.3.13 Town of Marion
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Marion will increase at the same rate as
Smyth’ County since’the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County’s
population is projeeted to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
population for the town will remain constant.
5.1.3.14 Town of Rural Retreat
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Rural
Retreat.
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5.1.3.15 Town of Saltville
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Saltville will increase at the same rate as
Smyth County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County‟s
population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
population for the town will remain constant.
5.1.3.16 Town of Troutdale
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Troutdale will increase at the same rate as
Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.  Grayson
County‟s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections
based on population will remain constant.
5.1.3.17 Town of Wytheville
No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Wytheville.
5.1.4 Projected Water Demand Results
The total projected demand for each jurisdiction in the MRPDC region though 2060 is presented
in Table 5.4.1.
Table 5.4.1:  Total Projected Water Demand by Jurisdiction.
Jurisdiction
Total Projected Demand for MRPDC (MG/Year)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Bland County 261 265 270 274 279 285
Carroll County 1,129 1,140 1,152 1,166 1,180 1,197
Grayson County 870 871 872 874 876 878
Smyth County 1,939 2,074 2,226 2,396 2,588 2,802
Washington County 4,719 5,104 5,533 6,012 6,546 7,141
Wythe County 2,635 2,845 3,079 3,340 3,632 3,958
City of Bristol 1,388 1,518 1,663 1,827 2,010 2,216
City of Galax 813 854 900 951 1009 1074
Town of Chilhowie 352 375 402 431 464 501
Town of Fries 15 15 16 17 17 18
Town of Hillsville 101 107 114 121 130 139
Town of Independence 57 61 65 70 75 82
Town of Marion 749 829 919 1,020 1,133 1,259
Town of Rural Retreat 126 139 152 168 184 203
Town of Saltville 323 346 369 395 424 457
Town of Troutdale 37.74 38.13 38.57 39.07 39.63 40.25
Town of Wytheville 1,087 1,195 1,316 1,450 1,599 1,766
5.13.15
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Saltville will increase at the same rate as
Smyth County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns. Smyth County’s
population is projected to decrease; therefore, it was assumed that demand projections based on
Town of Saltville
population for the town will remain constant,
5.13.16
It was assumed that the population for the Town of Troutdale will increase at the same rate as
Grayson County since the U.S. Census Bureau does not provide data for towns.
County’s population is projected to decrease; therefore, it wasassumed that demand projections
Town of Troutdale
based on population will remain constant.
5.13.17
‘No amendments to the demand projection methodology were made for the Town of Wytheville.
5.1.4
The total projected demand for each jurisdiction in the MRPDC region though 2060 is presented
in Table 5.4.1.
Town of Wytheville
Projected Water Demand Results
Grayson
‘Table 5.4.1: Total Projected Water Demand by Jurisdiction,
Jurisdiction ‘Total Projected Demand for MRPDC (MG/Year)
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Bland Count 261 265 270 274 279 285
Carroll County 1,129 1.140 1,152 1,166 1,180 1,197
Graysoa Count 870 871 872 874 876 878
‘Smyth Count 1,939 2,074 2.226 2,396 2,588 2,802
Washington Count 4.719 5,104 5,533 6.012 6.546 7141
Wythe County 2,635 2,845 3.079 3,340 3.632 3,958
City of Bristol 1.388 1518 1,663, 1,827 2,010 2.216
City of Galax 813 354 900 951 1009 1074
Town of Chilhowie 352 375 402 31 464 501
Town of Fries 15 15 16 7 7 18
Town of Hillsville 101 107 14 121 130 139
Town of Independence 37 61 65 70 75 82
Town of Marion 749 329 919 1,020 1133 1259
Town of Rural Retreat 126 139 152 168 184 203
Town of Saltville 323 346 369 395 424 457
Town of Troutdale 37.74 38.13 38.57 39.07 39.63 40.25
Town of Wytheville 1,087 1195 1316 1,450 1,599 1,766
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Graphs showing projected water demands for the public community water system; private
community water systems; self-supplied, non-agricultural users; self-supplied, agricultural users;
and self-supplied users using individual groundwater wells for each jurisdiction are presented in
Appendix X.  In addition, please refer to Appendix X for calculations on the estimated
population, annual average water demand, monthly peak water demand, and annual average
demand disaggregated into appropriate categories of use for each community water system.
Calculations for the self-supplied, non-agricultural users; self-supplied, agricultural users; and
self-supplied users using individual groundwater wells are also included in Appendix X.
5.2 Cumberland Plateau PDC
5.2.1 Population Projections
The projected population through the year 2040, the termination of the planning period, was
reviewed for the four Counties in the Cumberland Plateau PDC region:   Buchanan, Dickenson,
Russell, and Tazewell.  Between 2010 and 2040, the population changes in these areas were
eight percent decrease (-8%), one percent decrease (-1%), twelve percent increase (12%), and ten
percent increase (10%), respectively.  In the aggregate, the population in the entire planning area
is projected to increase by five percent (5%) between 2010 and 2040.
Detailed review of population projections for each County during the time period identifies
population trends during the planning period.  For Buchanan County, the eight percent decrease
in population is projected to occur between 2010 and 2020, with little change between 2020 and

Dickenson County population is considered to be constant during the planning period.

For Russell County and Tazewell County, the percent population increases are projected to occur
uniformly during each decade of the planning study.
5.2.2 Demand Projections
The Cumberland Plateau PDC, working with the Counties, maintains planning documents on
extension of public water to residents currently unserved.  These plans include detailed listings
of projects that have been presented in 604B water and wastewater studies and updates.  Many
extensions of existing water systems have been incorporated into these plans.  Funding for and
constructing of these projects is anticipated to continue through 2030.  The projected demands
for these systems are included in the development of water demand projections.  Although water
Graphs showing projected water demands for the public community water system; private
community water systems; self-supplied, non-agricultural users; self-supplied, agricultural users;
and self-supplied users using individual groundwater wells for each jurisdiction are presented in
Appendix X. In addition, please refer to Appendix X for calculations on the estimated
population, annual average water demand, monthly peak water demand, and annual average
demand disaggregated into appropriate categories of use for each community water system.
Calculations for the self-supplied, non-agricultural users; self-supplied, agricultural users; and
self-supplied users using individual groundwater wells are also included in Appendix X.
5.2 Cumberland Plateau PDC
5.2.1 Population Projections
The projected population through the year 2040, the termination of the planning period, was
reviewed for the four Counties in the Cumberland Plateau PDC region: Buchanan, Dickenson,
Russell, and Tazewell. Between 2010 and 2040, the population changes in these areas were
eight percent decrease (-8%), one percent decrease (-1%), twélve percent increase (12%), and ten
percent increase (10%), respectively. In the aggregate, the population in the entire planning area
is projected to increase by five percent (5%) between 2010 and 2040.
Detailed review of population projections for each County during the time period identifies
population trends during the planning period. For Buchanan County, the eight percent decrease
in population is projected to occur between 2010 and 2020, with little change between 2020 and
2040. Dickenson County population is considered to be constant during the planning period.
For Russell County and Tazewell County, the percent population increases are projected to occur
uniformly during each decade of the planning study.
5.2.2 Demand Projections
The Cumberland Plateau PDC, working with the Counties, maintains planning documents on
extension of public water to residents currently unserved. These plans include detailed listings
of projects that have been presented in 604B water and wastewater studies and updates. Many
extensions of existing water systems have been incorporated into these plans. Funding for and
constructing of these projects is anticipated to continue through 2030. The projected demands
for these systems are included in the development of water demand projections. Although water
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system extension projects may be dispersed geographically throughout each County, the
increased demands attributable to proposed line extensions are included into the following water
systems for calculation purposes:
Buchanan County – in the Buchanan County PSA System;
Dickenson County – in the Dickenson County PSA System;
Russell County – in the Castlewood Water & Sewer Authority System (for CWSA
extensions) and as “Russell County PSA Extensions” (for Russell County PSA
extensions);
Tazewell County – in three of the Tazewell County PSA‟s systems (Baptist Valley,
Claypool Hill, and Eastern Tazewell County).
Water usage in community water systems is presented in Appendix X.
The number of self-supplied users located outside of the service areas of community water
systems decreases throughout the planning period due to extension of existing water service into
areas in which residents are currently self-served.  For Buchanan County and Tazewell County,
the number of self-supplied residential connections at the end of the planning period is minimal.
This projection is based on completion of water system extensions as identified in the
appropriate planning documents.
No known economic activity in the planning area that will utilize additional water has been
quantified for the planning period ending in 2040.  Therefore, this parameter did not significantly
impact the calculations of projected water demand.  Construction of the Coalfields Expressway
could result in water demand by accompanying motels and restaurants built along the
Expressway in Buchanan County at Southern Gap, as well as in Dickenson County.  The
Bluestone Business and Technology Center in Tazewell County could modestly increase local
water demand.  These potential impacts should be reviewed during the plan review required each
ten years after initial plan approval.  Due to paucity of information indicating otherwise, the
water consumption by self-supplied users of more than 300,000 gallons per month was not
projected to change during the planning period.  The amount of water use by self-supplied users
system extension projects may be dispersed geographically throughout each County, the
increased demands attributable to proposed line extensions are included into the following water
systems for calculation purposes:


Buchanan County ~ in the Buchanan County PSA System;


Dickenson County ~ in the Dickenson County PSA System;


Russell County — in the Castlewood Water & Sewer Authority System (for CWSA
extensions) and as “Russell County PSA Extensions” “(for Russell County PSA


extensions);

Tazewell County — in three of the Tazewell County PSA’s systems (Baptist Valley,
Claypool Hill, and Eastern Tazewell County):

Water usage in community water systems is presented in Appendix X.
The number of self-supplied users located outside of the service areas of community water
systems decreases throughout the planning period due to extension of existing water service into
areas in which residents are cufrently self-served. For Buchanan County and Tazewell County,
the number of self-supplied residential connections at the end of the planning period is minimal.
This projection is based on completion of water system extensions as identified in the
appropriate planning documents.
No known economic aetivity:in the planning area that will utilize additional water has been
quantified for the planning period ending in 2040. Therefore, this parameter did not significantly
impact the calculations of projected water demand. Construction of the Coalfields Expressway
could result in water demand by accompanying motels and restaurants built along. the
Expressway in Buchanan County at Southern Gap, as well as in Dickenson County. The
Bluestone Business and Technology Center in Tazewell County could modestly increase local
water demand. These potential impacts should be reviewed during the plan review required each
ten years after initial plan approval. Due to paucity of information indicating otherwise, the
water consumption by self-supplied users of more than 300,000 gallons per month was not
projected to change during the planning period. The amount of water use by self-supplied users
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of more than 300,000 gallons per month is approximately one-fifth the use of community water
systems.
The final parameter evaluated for potential impact to water demand projections was water
system delivery efficiency.  This parameter is commonly referred to as “water accountability” or
“lost water” and addressed in the section on water demand management information below.
“Unaccounted-for-water” is generally understood as the difference between the volume of
potable water that enters a water distribution system and the volume that is metered “leaving” the
system.
The VDH Office of Drinking Water has established that any system with “unaccounted-for-
water” values in excess of thirty percent (30%) is in significant noncompliance.  The current
value of “unaccounted-for-water” for each community system is maintained by the Office of
Drinking Water.  Using data from calendar year 2007, water system delivery efficiency was
evaluated for community water systems in the planning area.  Seventy five percent of systems
reported compliance, having less than thirty percent lost water.  For those water systems
presently in compliance, no additional system improvement in unaccounted-for-water was
projected during the planning period, due to lack of documentation regarding the sustainability of
improvement efforts.  All but two of the systems reporting greater than thirty percent lost water
had less than forty percent lost water.  Future lost water for those systems was based on reducing
lost water to thirty percent (30%) by 2020, and maintaining that value through 2040.  For the two
systems reporting a significantly higher percentage of lost water, the difference between their
current amount of lost water and the VDH compliance value of thirty percent lost water was
divided by three.  This provided an amount of reduction in lost water to be achieved during each
of the next three decades.  At 2040, these two systems are projected to have reduced lost water to
thirty percent.  The value of lost water for specific water systems presented in Appendix D
reflects recent VDH data.
No in-stream uses of water are known that are projected to impact the water demand in the
Cumberland Plateau PDC region.
Based on the impact of population changes, extension of public water systems to residents
currently unserved, and improvement in delivery efficiency of water systems, the total water
of more than 300,000 gallons per month is approximately one-fifth the use of community water
systems.
The final parameter evaluated for potential impact to water demand projections was water
system delivery efficiency. This parameter is commonly referred to as “water accountability” or
“lost water” and addressed in the section on water demand management information below.
“Unaccounted-for-water” is generally understood as the difference between the volume of
potable water that enters a water distribution system and the volume that is metered “leaving” the
system,
The VDH Office of Drinking Water has established that any-system with “unaccounted-for-
water” values in excess of thirty percent (30%) is in significant noncompliance. The current
value of “unaccounted-for-water” for each community system is maintained by the Office of
Drinking Water. Using data from calendar year 2007, water system delivery efficiency was
evaluated for community water systems in the planning area. Seventy five percent of systems
reported compliance, having less than thirty percent Jost water. For those water systems.
presently in compliance, no additional system improvement in unaccounted-for-water was
projected during the planning period, due to’lack of documentation regarding the sustainability of
improvement efforts. All but two of the systems reporting greater than thirty percent lost water
had less than forty percent lost water. Future lost water for those systems was based on reducing
lost water to thirty percent (30%) by 2020, and maintaining that value through 2040. For the two
systems reporting a Significantly higher percentage of lost water, the difference between their
current amount of lost water-and the VDH compliance value of thirty percent lost water was
divided by thtee, This provided an amount of reduction in lost water to be achieved during each
of the next three decades. At 2040, these two systems are projected to have reduced lost water to
thirty percent. The value of lost water for specific water systems presented in Appendix D
reflects recent VDH data.
No in-s
ream uses of water are known that are projected to impact the water demand in the
Cumberland Plateau PDC region.
Based on the impact of population changes, extension of public water systems to residents
currently unserved, and improvement in delivery efficiency of water systems, the total water
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demand in the planning area is projected to increase approximately nineteen percent (19 %)
during the planning period between 2010 and 2040.  Actual water demand increases for specific
regions of the planning area may be significantly larger or smaller than the overall increases of
nineteen percent.  Localized water demand needs may require additional water production
capacity in those portions of the Cumberland Plateau PDC region.
5.3 LENOWISCO PDC
5.3.1 Population Projections
The projected population through the year 2040, the termination of the planning period, was
reviewed for the City of Norton and each of the three Counties in the planning area, Lee, Scott,
and Wise. Between 2010 and 2040, the population changes in these areas were one percent (1%)
increase, six percent (6%) decrease, five percent increase (5%), and six percent (6%) decrease,
respectively. In the aggregate, the population in the entire planning area is projected to decrease
by three percent (3%) between 2010 and 2040. Because these population changes were slight
(0.1% per year), the population for each locality in the planning area was considered to be
constant over the planning period.
5.3.2 Demand Projections
Several extensions of existing water systems have been included in approved planning
documents and capital improvement plans (CIP), and are anticipated to be in service by 2010 or

The projected demands for these systems were included in the development of water

demand projections. The amount of consumption by self-supplied users located outside of the
service areas of community water systems was held constant over the period.
No known economic activity in the planning area that will utilize additional water has been
documented for the planning period ending in 2040. Therefore, this parameter did not impact the
calculations of projected water demand.
The fourth parameter evaluated for potential impact to water demand projections was water
system delivery efficiency. This parameter is commonly referred to as “water accountability” or
“lost water” and addressed in the section on water demand management information below.
“Unaccounted-for-water” is generally understood as the difference between the volume of
demand in the planning area is projected to increase approximately nineteen percent (19 %)
during the planning period between 2010 and 2040. Actual water demand increases for specific
regions of the planning area may be significantly larger or smaller than the overall increases of
nineteen percent, Localized water demand needs may require additional water production
capacity in those portions of the Cumberland Plateau PDC region.
5.3 LENOWISCO PDC
5.3.1 Population Projections
The projected population through the year 2040, the termination of the planning period, was
reviewed for the City of Norton and each of the three Counties in the planning area, Lee, Scott,
and Wise. Between 2010 and 2040, the population changes in these areas were one percent (1%)
increase, six percent (6%) decrease, five percent increase (5%), and six percent (6%) decrease,
respectively. In the aggregate, the population in the entite planning area is projected to decrease
by three percent (3%) between 2010 and 2040. Because these population changes were slight
(0.1% per year), the population for each locality in the planning area was considered to be
constant over the planning period.
5.3.2. Demand Projections
Several extensions of existing. water systems have been included in approved planning
documents and capital improvement plans (CIP), and are anticipated to be in service by 2010 or
2020. The projected:demands for these systems were included in the development of water
demand projections. The amount of consumption by self-supplied users located outside of the
service areas of community water systems was held constant over the period.
No known economic activity in the planning area that will utilize additional water has been
documented for the planning period ending in 2040. Therefore, this parameter did not impact the
calculations of projected water demand.
The fourth parameter evaluated for potential impact to water demand projections was water
system delivery efficiency. This parameter is commonly referred to as “water accountability” or
“Jost water” and addressed in the section on water demand management information below.
“Unaccounted-for-water” is generally understood as the difference between the volume of
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potable water that enters a water distribution system and the volume that is metered “leaving” the
system. The VDH Office of Drinking Water has established that any system with “unaccounted-
for water” values in excess of thirty percent (30%) is in significant noncompliance.  The current
value of “unaccounted-for-water” for each community system was evaluated. Those systems in
significant noncompliance were projected to attain thirty percent (30%) unaccounted-for-water
by 2020, and improve to twenty five percent (25%) by 2030, maintaining that value through

In cases for which proposed projects are expected to reduce the unaccounted-for-water

value to twenty percent (20%), that value was used. For water systems in compliance, no
additional system improvement in unaccounted-for-water was projected due to not having
documentation regarding the sustainability of improvement efforts.
No in-stream uses of water are known that are projected to impact the water demand in the
LENOWISCO PDC region. Based on the impact of these parameters, the total water demand in
the LENOWISCO PDC region is projected to decrease approximately four percent (4%) between
2010 and 2040.
potable water that enters a water distribution system and the volume that is metered “leaving” the
system. The VDH Office of Drinking Water has established that any system with “unaccounted-
for water” values in excess of thirty percent (30%) is in significant noncompliance. ‘The current
value of “unaccounted-for-water” for each community system was evaluated. Those systems in
significant noncompliance were projected to attain thirty percent (30%) unaccounted-for-water
by 2020, and improve to twenty five percent (25%) by 2030, maintaining that value through
2040. In cases for which proposed projects are expected to reduce the unaccotnted-for-water
value to twenty percent (20%), that value was used. For water systems in compliance, no
additional system improvement in unaccounted-for-water was projected due to not having
documentation regarding the sustainability of improvement efforts.
No in-stream uses of water are known that are projected to impact the Water demand in the
LENOWISCO PDC region. Based on the impact of these parameters, the total water demand in
the LENOWISCO PDC region is projected to decrease approximately four percent (4%) between
2010 and 2040.
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